International Centre for Policy Studies

[en/] Projects Publications Укр Eng About centre About ICPS ICPS team Partners Supervisory Board Career and Internship Reports Contacts Research areas Foreign Policy Internal Policy Economic Analysis Social policy and human rights Activity Current projects Projects archive Periodicals (Inside Ukraine) Publications Social policy and human rights The impact of COVID-19 on the EU’s neighbourhood: Ukraine 01.04.2020 Economic Analysis Experts estimated how the coronavirus pandemic will affect Ukraine's economy 06.05.2020 Internal Policy ICPS has published a study on the year of Zelensky's presidency 19.05.2020 Foreign Policy ICPS conducted a video conference on bilateral relations between Ukraine and Hungary 29.05.2020 Foreign Policy Austrian experts and diplomats discussed ICPS study “Sanctions against Russia” 04.06.2020 Internal Policy ICPS issued an assessment of local/regional measures for July-October 2020 26.10.2020 View More from this category Internal Policy ICPS issued an assessment of local/regional measures for July-October 2020 The current summary was developed within the project “Strengthening democratic resilience of key public institutions in Ukraine”. The initiative is being implemented by the International Centre for Policy Studies (ICPS) in partnership with the Institute for Economic and Social Reforms in Slovakia (INEKO) and is financially supported by the Embassy of the United States in Kyiv, Ukraine. The project aims to improve the efficiency of the state administration, self-government and civil society in the area of creation and oversight of regional policies. It also aims to increase transparency and independence of key regulatory and judiciary institutions as well as transparency and financial stability of the biggest state-owned enterprises and local authorities in Ukraine. The main objective of this publication is to improve the quality of regional and/or municipal regulation and legislation through publishing a regular expert assessment of the socio-economic measures proposed or implemented by local governments in Ukraine. The purpose of the evaluation is to describe and promote reform and anti-corruption practices that can be transferred to other localities as well. At the same time, the critical assessment of non-transparent and inefficient measures should discourage representatives of local and regional authorities from their implementation. The policies included in the current summary were identified and analyzed with the support of the Evaluation Council experts who were selected by the International Centre for Policy Studies on the basis of their experience. As a result, six local and regional measures are described in this publication. The experts positively assessed the idea of renewing the airport in Chernivtsi. According to them, it will attract investors to the project and will improve the business activity in the region. It will also have a positive impact on the well-being of the population by increasing the number of jobs, attracting various types of business and promoting the tourism. However, it is not yet possible to assess the real effect of the measure due to the airport development plan and cost estimates have not been provided. The second measure that will potentially bring economic benefits to Transcarpathia is the news that all Transcarpathian timber will be sold through the ProZorro-Sale system. This will ensure transparency in the sale of officially recognized timber, however will not solve the problem of illegal logging, in which officials are involved. According to experts, the measure on co-financing of the Katerynopil center of primary health care took the third place. Improving hospital conditions and providing them with the necessary equipment is vital for cities and villages across Ukraine. However, while defending the idea of improving the conditions in hospitals, deputies do not provide a clear estimate or plan for activities for which they plan to spend 2.5 million hryvnias. This causes distrust of citizens and non-transparency of local budget expenditures. According to experts, the fourth place was taken by the measure on signing a loan and grant agreement on the Project for modernization of solid waste infrastructure between KP "Spetskomuntrans" and the EBRD. The construction of waste processing plants is currently a very important issue in every region, in particular, for Khmelnytsky. Experts acknowledge that the measure is positive, however, local authorities are inappropriate in the implementation of the project. Therefore, it is necessary to implement control over the development of activities and the implementation of the plan. The creation of the Mariupol City Council's municipal non-profit enterprise Hockey Club Mariupol was assessed negatively by the experts. The development of sports at the local level is important, however, it is a new sport for the people of Mariupol, the construction and maintenance of which will cost the local budget several tens of millions of hryvnias. Experts negatively assessed the decision of the Odessa City Council to take a loan of UAH 500 million at a high interest rate to repay last year's loans and the current needs of the city. This decision is alarming and reaffirms that public control should be an integral part of all important local government decisions. The detailed evaluation and the full document can be found here: Monitoring of Local and Development Policies in Ukraine (July 2020 - October 2020) window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'UA-122353741-2'); 26.10.2020 View More from this category Foreign Policy Austrian experts and diplomats discussed ICPS study “Sanctions against Russia” Sanctions must remain a key instrument of pressure on Russia to restore Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. This conclusion was reached by Ukrainian and Austrian foreign policy experts during expert discussion of the ICPS study “Sanctions against Russia: current state, prospects, successes and gaps of the multilateral international sanctions regime against Russian Federation”, which took place on Tuesday, June 3, in the format of online discussion. About 40 Austrian and Ukrainian diplomats, analysts and foreign policy experts took part in online discussion “Sanctions against Russia: are they still effective?”, organized by ICPS in conjunction with the International Institute for Peace (IIP, Vienna) with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation. The speakers were Hannes Swoboda, President of the International Institute for Peace (IIP), Peter Havlik, expert at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Anastasia Galushka, ICPS expert in international law and human rights and Mykola Kapitonenko, ICPS associate expert. The participants of discussion stressed the need to continue sanctions against Russia, as Russia's actions in Ukraine are a challenge not only for our country, but for the entire international community which is why they must receive a joint coordinated response. “Sanctions, as a tool “between wars and words”, remain the only way to put pressure on Russia's foreign policy while limiting its destructive potential for international security,” ICPS expert in international law and human rights Anastasia Galushka said. According to Mykola Kapitonenko, combination of different types of sanctions will allow for a more systemic impact on Russian policy; while the procedure of their periodic extension will signal the dependence of sanctions pressure on specific changes in the behavior of the Russian Federation. It should be noted that earlier ICPS experts presented the study “Sanctions against Russia” in the United States, Estonia, Belgium, Italy and Poland. You could download and read ICPS study “Sanctions against Russia” via the link: https://cutt.ly/orQ0PGd 04.06.2020 View More from this category Foreign Policy ICPS conducted a video conference on bilateral relations between Ukraine and Hungary On Thursday, May 28, the International Centre for Policy Studies (ICPS) and the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade (Hungary) initiated an expert video conference on “Impact of Bilateral Relations between Ukraine and Hungary on Regional Security”. The online event was part of the project “Ukraine-Hungary: Towards Understanding” with the support of the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade. During the video conference, the participants discussed the state and prospects of relations between Ukraine and Hungary in the context of regional security, Hungary's role in Ukraine-NATO relations, the impact of the Russian conflict on Ukrainian-Hungarian relations and regional security. The event was attended by several dozen experts, including Christina Murphy, Deputy Head of Mission, Hungarian Embassy in Ukraine, Georgy Ilyash, research fellow at the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade (Hungary), Mykola Kapitonenko, ICPS Expert on Foreign Policy, Dmytro Tuzhansky, political scientist, expert on Ukrainian-Hungarian relations, Anastasia Galushka, ICPS expert on foreign policy and international law. “Relations between Hungary and Ukraine still remain in a well-known deadlock,” Mykola Kapitonenko said. - Minor shifts in recent months, firstly, do not fully meet the expectations that arose after the victory of Volodymyr Zelensky in the presidential election, and, secondly, according to Budapest, do not solve the key problem of narrowing the rights Hungarians in Ukraine”. According to him, the rapid development of events in the region pushes our countries to cooperation. Against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, a bilateral agreement on health cooperation was signed, a corridor was set up in Hungary for Ukrainians to return home, and new formats of governmental remote communication were tested. “The usual agenda, dominated by the Russian threat, retaliation by NATO and the lack of democracy, is giving way to the challenges of pandemic,” Mykola Kapitonenko said. - In addition to those directly related to human health, these are problems that have already been or will be caused by the economic recession and the growing demand for security among citizens. Together, they change the way states communicate and perceive each other. Borders and various barriers are being partially restored, selfishness is growing, and political decisions are returning to the usual national level.” Anastasia Galushka drew attention to the controversial law on education which provoked numerous discussions at the political and professional levels. “It can hardly be argued that citizens living in Ukraine should know the state language of the country, and that this law can only be seen as an advantage for members of national minorities,” ICPS expert said. “However, implement the law in practice was much harder than expected.” According to her, the Venice Commission also addressed this issue and formulated some principles, stating that knowledge of the official language of the state is a factor of social cohesion and integration, and it is legitimate for states to promote their language and call for the state language to be the language of education for all. “Ukraine and Hungary are part of a single region, establishing cooperation and maintaining a common consensus could significantly expand the capabilities of both countries,” Anastasia Galushka added. - This would control the level of escalation of the conflict. The regional context can open new horizons for both states, take them out of the circular discussion and focus only on current problems. A full-fledged strategic partnership is still a long way off, but at least the current crisis can be overcome.” 29.05.2020 View More from this category Internal Policy ICPS has published a study on the year of Zelensky's presidency On Tuesday, May 19, the International Centre for Policy Studies presented the document “The year of Zelensky: lost opportunities, training time or preparation for a breakthrough?” in which analyzed changes in domestic and foreign policy, economy and governance under the sixth President of Ukraine. ICPS experts in the study note that Volodymyr Zelensky has managed a country with a number of complex problems: poverty, corruption, a weak and import-dependent economy, institutional weakness and inefficiency of public authorities, strong oligarchic monopolies and dependent media, political structures, war and Russian occupation of part of Ukrainian territory. A completely new and unexpected problem for the sixth president was the coronavirus pandemic, the need to impose strict quarantine restrictions throughout the country and the comprehensive economic crisis. Zelensky's current rating leaves room for decisive action at least at the beginning of the second year of his presidency. According to ICPS analysts, the critical limit for the ability to use government resources Zelensky will be a drop in his rating to 20-25%. Achieving this mark is likely to start the process of preparation for early presidential and / or parliamentary elections, Ukraine may receive significant political turbulence, the process of creating new coalitions, the object of attacks of which will be President Zelensky as the architect of an already unfavorable political structure, pressure from various political players will increase - the West, Russia, local elites, FIGs, the opposition, and so on. “Therefore, the current period - a year since taking office, the final formation of the power vertical, the end of quarantine, the resumption of political life, the process of peaceful settlement of the conflict in Donbas - is critical for the President to demonstrate efficiency and results,” the study states. It is noteworthy that the document, in addition to the analysis of the first year of Zelensky's presidency, contains recommendations for overcoming threats and challenges, including: transition from international specialization in raw materials and low-tech goods that embody low added value to specialization in medium and high-tech industries, etc. You could read / download ICPS study “The Year of Zelensky: Lost Opportunities, Training Time or Preparation for a Breakthrough?”: https://cutt.ly/TyTNyWv 19.05.2020 View More from this category Economic Analysis Experts estimated how the coronavirus pandemic will affect Ukraine's economy On Tuesday, May 5, online conference on “Ukraine's Economy and Finance during and after the coronavirus pandemic” with the participation of the country's leading economists was held, it was organized by the International Centre for Policy Studies and the Hanns Seidel Foundation. The online conference was attended by such experts on economic issues as Roman Shpek, Anatoliy Maksyuta, Tamara Solyanyk, Yaroslav Zhalilo, Roman Sheremeta, Taras Kozak, Serhiy Fursa, Yegor Kiyan, Olena Korobkova, First Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Economic Development Serhiy Taruta, diplomats and analysts - Vasyl Filipchuk, Kostiantyn Hryshchenko, Oleksandr Chalyy, Oleksiy Semeniy and others. “The crisis related to the coronavirus pandemic in the world has been compounded by crises in the commodity and financial markets,” Roman Shpek, chairman of the Council of the Independent Association of Banks of Ukraine and 5th Minister of Economy of Ukraine said. “Because reforms in Ukraine have not been comprehensive and have not been completed, our country's economy is entering these crises in a vulnerable and fragile state.” According to him, the main preconditions for the economic crisis in Ukraine are failed structural reforms, a large shadow economy, unequal conditions of competition, gray schemes for importing imported goods, lack of securities market, and closed access to the international borrowing market. “In these conditions, our country should provide appropriate support to business, entrepreneurs, and population,” Roman Shpek stressed. - First of all, through the support of domestic production, consumption and trade. We shouldn`t stop to cooperate with international financial institutions and must have access to cheap and long-lasting funds.” Chairman of the Board of the Institute of Socio-Economic Research Anatoliy Maksyuta stressed the differences in estimates of the fall in real GDP of Ukraine in 2020: “The government forecasts a decline of 4.8%, the NBU by 5%, experts by 6.5%, the IMF by 7.7%.” Also, according to him, estimates of inflation differ significantly, which are constantly changing for the worse. “The current crisis in Ukraine may lead to budget defaults and increase in deficit of more than 7.5%, increase in public debt, as well as in the unemployment rate to 10-11%,” Anatoliy Maksyuta said. “As well as the irreversible loss of labor, the growth of import dependence due to the cessation of production, further deformation of the structure of the economy towards raw materials and services, the loss of markets due to protectionist policies.” According to Tamara Solyanyk, Program Manager “Leadership in economic governance” USAID, the Ukrainian government should emphasize the promotion of small business: “This is about 7 million citizens who feed their families.” “The easy way (spending cuts, emissions, populism) is not an effective way out of the situation,” ICPS economic analyst Yegor Kiyan said. “The difficult way is to increase the efficiency of the state.” Yegor Kiyan proposed ICPS` recommendations for the authorities how to overcome the crisis, including debt restructuring under IMF programs, receiving tranche to fight coronavirus, dialogue and progress on cooperation programs with the IMF, avoiding speculation on default. “It is necessary to revise the state budget taking into account government programs, order the resumption of production to avoid development asymmetries, preserve independence of the NBU and support the hryvnia exchange rate,” the expert concluded. “As well as the transparency of government decisions, constant dialogue in the state-society-business system, avoiding staff changes in key ministries.” 06.05.2020 View More from this category Social policy and human rights The impact of COVID-19 on the EU’s neighbourhood: Ukraine In this special series of commentaries, experts look at how countries neighbouring the EU are dealing with the coronavirus crisis, the challenges they face and the scope for EU support. After just having managed to shake off its economic ills, Ukraine risks facing more economic and political turmoil in the wake of COVID-19. Europe should be prepared to step in and play a leading role in providing international assistance to Ukraine, to avert any form of instability. Ukraine is no stranger to crisis. However, the COVID-19 crisis comes at a time when the country is already faced with several serious challenges, including a fragile economy and ongoing conflict in the Donbas. Averting a new economic crisis and preventing the collapse of Ukraine’s under-resourced healthcare system will require strong leadership and a well-coordinated and properly communicated response at the national and local levels. Although the EU is also battling COVID-19, it must not forget its neighbours. Instability in Ukraine would have repercussions for the EU, too. An overwhelming challenge The first COVID-19 case in Ukraine was reported on 3 March, carried reportedly by migrant workers returning from Italy. As of 30 March, there are 549 confirmed cases and 13 fatalities.[1] The numbers are expected to sharply rise once testing, which was limited so far, increases: 250,000 express test kits arrived from China on 24 March. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has also promised to make available a further 10 million tests. The initial response of Ukraine’ new government – which took office only three weeks ago following an unexpected reshuffle – was rather chaotic. However, today the steps taken mirror those adopted by many other countries. These include banning public gatherings, closing schools, forbidding cross-border and inter-regional transport and asking citizens to remain at home from 12 March until 24 April. On 24 March, a month-long, nationwide state of emergency was introduced. While Zelenskiy holds a daily media briefing to update citizens on the efforts to fight the virus, an additional country-wide information campaign should be implemented as disinformation from both internal and external sources is widespread. Ukraine’s parliament has introduced several key measures to fight the spread of COVID-19 and support Ukrainian citizens and businesses. These include simplifying the procedure of the prompt procurement of goods and services required to combat COVID-19: importing medication duty- and VAT-free and introducing salary increases of up to 200% for doctors working directly on the virus. To protect the rights of internally displaced persons (IDPs) – some 1,500,000 people following the conflict in Donbas –, it is now forbidden to cancel their registration certificates for the quarantine period and an additional 30 days after its abolition, as well as to freeze their state aid during the quarantine. An inadequate healthcare system Ukraine’s under-resourced and only partially reformed healthcare system is not equipped to deal with such a crisis. Zelenskiy has asked medical facilities to suspend non-urgent operations to prepare for the treating of COVID-19 patients. Shortages of crucial equipment, such as ventilators and critical protection items including masks and gloves, have already led to some doctors becoming infected with the virus. There are also deficiencies in the communication between hospitals, local authorities and the Ministry of Health. While the Cabinet of Ministers has allocated ₴100 million (€3 million) for critical protection items and Ukrainian businesses have purchased equipment for hospitals, it is doubtful whether this will be sufficient to cope with a massive influx of new cases or not. Economic implications With the Ukrainian economy having only just returned to growth following its 2014-15 economic meltdown, this crisis is bad news. Ukraine has an export-oriented economy and, with the stagnation of international markets, demand for Ukrainian exports, not least agricultural products and metals, has plummeted. Besides the impact on different business sectors, there are other serious risks, including those related to currency devaluation. For one, while a lower exchange rate and slightly weakened hryvnia may provide short-term benefits for the economy and intensify exports, the expected global downturn may limit the extent to which the Ukrainian economy will be able to benefit from a weaker currency. For another, if the exchange rate drops by more than 15%, almost all Ukrainian banks will need additional capital. Furthermore, a significant amount of national debt payments (i.e. ₴400 billion, or almost €13 billion) – some 40% of the national budget – is planned for 2020. In the event of expanding deficit, there will be an urgent need for the government to start a dialogue on debt restructuring with the International Monetary Fund and private owners of national bonds. The National Bank of Ukraine’s intervention to stabilise the economic situation, including spending more than $1 billion to support the hryvnia, was important. The Cabinet of Ministers has also announced that it will create a stabilisation fund of some ₴200 billion (€30 million) to support its citizens and businesses. Despite these efforts, Ukraine will continue to need assistance from international donors. Given the present uncertainty in Ukraine, estimates of the economic impact of COVID-19 differ greatly. According to multiple recent estimations, Ukraine’s 2020 GDP may decline from the earlier predicted growth of 3.2% to 0.5% and could even fall to -4%.[2] The by now very optimistic scenario of low growth assumes that the lockdown will not be prolonged beyond 24 April and that the Ukrainian economy will regain some of its positions during the second half of 2020. Meanwhile, a prolongation of the lockdown and the widely anticipated global economic recession may result in a very negative scenario; one similar to the economic crises of 2008-2009 and 2014-2015, with the GDP plummeting by as much as 20%.[3] Currently, it is too early to anticipate which way the situation will go. Moreover, there are several other factors which are difficult to predict, such as how the population will spend its ‘savings’, how the shadow economy will behave, and how economic actors will react to breaks in the global production and supply chains. Other challenges The virus could also impact Ukraine’s geopolitical environment negatively. With EU member states focused on pressing domestic priorities, Ukraine may face difficulties in maintaining international support for issues relating to the resolution of the conflict in the Donbas. Moreover, with many EU member states set to face serious damage to their economies, maintaining EU-wide unity on the sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its aggression against Ukraine may become more difficult. Always on the lookout for an opportunity to exploit EU divisions and weaknesses, the Kremlin has already tried to demonstrate its goodwill to help Europe by sending planes of medical equipment to Italy, a country already sceptical about the sanctions. Ukraine’s ability to maintain an effective and coordinated policy within the country – between the central government and local authorities – will also be put to the test. However, the crisis may inadvertently help the nation overcome its divides and converge around a common understanding of national interests, such as investing in healthcare and critical infrastructure. What should the EU do? While EU leaders are focused on their respective domestic impacts of the coronavirus, it would be a strategic error to ignore the developments in its neighbourhood. Ukraine is going to require international assistance to overcome the COVID-19 crisis. The EU should be playing a leading role in this, by providing funds for the production of test kits and other crucial medical equipment, allowing Ukraine access to the strategic rescEU stockpile of crucial medical equipment (e.g. ventilators), offering support to small and medium-sized enterprises, and giving humanitarian and financial assistance for the potential humanitarian disaster in the occupied territories. The EU should also provide Ukraine with a new extraordinary financial assistance package to help the most affected areas of the economy once the crisis is over. Through such initiatives, the EU should send a message of solidarity to Ukraine at a time when the country faces multiple implications of the global pandemic. The EU cannot afford to ignore the impact of COVID-19 beyond its borders, as instability in Ukraine can quickly negatively impact the EU. Amanda Paul is Senior Policy Analyst of the Europe in the World programme. Vasyl Filipchuk is Senior Advisor to the International Centre for Policy Studies in Kyiv. The support the European Policy Centre receives for its ongoing operations, or specifically for its publications, does not constitute an endorsement of their contents, which reflect the views of the authors only. Supporters and partners cannot be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. [1] Kyiv Post, “Homepage: COVID-19 in numbers” (accessed 31 March 2020). [2] Åslund, Anders, “Ukraine urgently needs a new IMF agreement”, Atlantic Council, 22 March 2020. [3] Garton Ash, Timothy, “Timothy Ash: Ukraine’s choices ahead of big vote in parliament”, Kyiv Post, 27 March 2020. 01.04.2020 Load Subscribe for news and events ICPS Stay online with us Subscribe Announcements Periodicals Tweets Твиты от @ICPSUA Projects Projects archive 20.08.2015 Inside Ukraine 13.02.2017 Communication Campaign on Promotion of Tolerance and Mutual Understanding in the Society #RespectUA 26.09.2017 All projects Periodicals Inside Ukraine 75 01.02.2018 Foreigh Policy Insight 23 Special Issue 04.07.2016 All editions Information About ICPS Current projects Events and News Our sites Apostrophe National dialog Transparency regions Healthy budgets Subscribe for news Social Networks Address: Office 10, 2-B Muzeiniy provulok, Kyiv, Ukraine, 01001 Tel.: +38 (044) 334-30-57 E-mail: office@icps.com.ua For media inquiries: press@icps.com.ua Copyright © 1997 - 2020 ICPS International Centre for Policy Studies. 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