IV. Alternative Scenarios for the Future of Ukraine - UkraineTre

[http://www.ukrainetrek.com] home site map contact us add a link bookmark us discussion forum Welcome! Let's trek UkraineTrek.com now! It is the best site if you want to know plenty of important information about Ukraine. Central Ukraine | Western Ukraine | Eastern Ukraine | Southern Ukraine IV. Alternative Scenarios for the Future of Ukraine « previous page | content | next page » The carried out analysis of Ukrainian and major world powers' national interests and priorities, and of the regional peculiarities of Ukrainian geopolitical strategy allows for a procession to the construction of basic scenarios for Ukraine's future in the context of key external and internal factors of development. A scenario, according to the classical definitions of H. Kahn and O. Helmer, is a non-formalized multi-alternative forecast that describes the most probable, hypothetical succession of future events and defines the way in which the future state of the socioeconomic system emerges step-by-step from its existent state. (Kahn, H., Weiner, A., The Year 2000 . New York, 1967. Fowles, J., Ed. A Handbook of Future Research , New York, 1979.) One of the modifications of morphological analysis, the so-called method of morphological tables, is used in this analytical study in order to "generate" possible scenarios for the future. (Honcharenko O.M., "Alternative Scenarios as a Form of Analysis of Socio-Economic and Socio-Ecological Development", in: "Comprehensive Forecasting in the System "Society-Environment". Kyiv: Naukova Dumka, 1986). The main stages in the construction of a morphological table and in the selection and evaluation of scenarios were the following: 1. A preliminary description and analysis of the system under study - in our case, Ukraine in the context of internal and external parameters of development, and of basic national interests and goals. 2. A selection of classification criteria as a basis for the decomposition of a system. 3. A definition of functionally important classification criteria and their integration into the morphological table. 4. A consistent analysis of all possible alternatives to the system's condition. 5. A selection of the most probable meanings of classification criteria as a basis for the synthesis of alternative scenarios of development. 6. A non-formalized description of selected alternative scenarios of development. 7. An evaluation of the probability of selected scenarios of development with the use of expert procedures. The following were selected as main classification criteria: 1. The state of "East-West" relations . Basic functional meanings include: · The worsening of "East-West" relations. · The continuation of a current state of "East-West" relations. · An Improvement in "East-West" relations. The beginning of the formation of a New World Order (NWO). 2. The state of Ukraine-Russia relations and Ukraine's dominant geopolitical orientations . Basic functional meanings include: · The worsening of relations with the RF, growing economic contradictions. · Rapprochement with the RF, the loss of economic sovereignty and the formation of confederate relations. · A dominant orientation toward the RF together with the preservation of political and economic sovereignty: a)under the conditions of slow reforms and absence of western investments; b)under administrative reforms and weak cooperation with the West. · A dominant westward orientation, the establishment of equal economic and political relations with the RF. 3. Ukraine's domestic situation . Basic functional meanings include: · A continuation of the present day tendencies in the systemic economic crisis. · The termination of the progressive economic downfall in the absence of observed reforms and evident growth. · Irresolute reforms, slow stabilization of the economy and weak growth. · Successive administrative reforms and moderate growth. · Radical reforms based on democratic principles and rapid growth. Selected classification criteria and their main functional meanings are not critical. Their number can be increased, however in the case where the number of scenarios quickly grows, the crucial differences among them become less important. The results of the integration of classification criteria in the morphological table are represented in table 1 . The most probable scenarios in the table are marked by indexed letters. A non-formalized description of selected scenarios can be represented in the following way. Scenario A 1 - "Free Fall" The continuation of present day indecisive policy and confrontation between legislative and executive branches of power. An intensification of the crisis in state management. Social disturbances and regional conflicts. Involvement of Ukraine's closest neighbors from the CIS and CE in these conflicts. A widening split in society. The beginning of social disturbances and ethnic conflicts, their support by segments of the Military Establishment. The possibility of the eruption of civil war. Scenario B 3 - "The Belarus' Option" Slow reforms with open doors to infiltration by Russian capital and informational-cultural penetration. A progressive loss of economic sovereignty. Confederation with Russia. Entry into the Tashkent Pact and the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly of the CIS. Slow development as a Russian semi-colony. Scenario C 2 - "Marking Time" Reforms commence but radical economic changes are absent, confrontation between legislative and executive branches continues. Arbitrary bureaucratic rule and the reign of shadow capital continues. The end of permanent stagnation. Slow economic development, with significant lagging behind CE and even CIS states. Scenarios of Group D (D 3 , D 4 ) foresee the introduction of administrative reforms ("from above") and successive activity in the consolidation of society and the stabilization of the economy under conditions of a preferential geopolitical orientation toward Russia. The difference among group D scenarios is in depth and the level of reforms stimulation and, as a result, in their effectiveness and rates of economic growth. Scenario D 3 - "Euro-Asian Model 1" Desperate, however, chaotic efforts of executive and legislative powers to stabilize society, to enforce law and order, to stimulate administrative reforms. However, stabilizing processes proceed very slowly as a result of indecisive actions and the absence of consensus between legislative and executive branches. Investment activity and the flow of Russian capital is insufficient to ensure visible economic growth. Scenario D 4 - "Euro-Asian model 2" Resolute government action to enforce order in the state, to consolidate society and to stabilize the financial-monetary system (even under the conditions of deviation from certain democratic principles). Consecutive administrative stimulation of reforms simultaneously with the reconstruction and cutting of bureaucratic and budget structures. The flow of Russian investments and a scarcity of western investments. As a result, moderate economic growth in conditions of dependence on the rates of economic growth in the development of the general situation in Russia. Scenarios of Group E (E 4 , E 5 ). These scenarios foresee the introduction of radical reforms under the conditions of preferential western geopolitical Table 1. Morphological Table of Alternative Scenarios for Ukraine's Development up to the Year 2003 orientations. The differences among the scenarios of this group are in the forms and mechanisms of the stimulation of reforms. Scenario E 4 - "Western Authoritarianism" Establishment of a "de Gaul" type of liberal western authoritarianism in the state in a situation of inevitable economic crisis. Radical economic reforms assisted by administrative stimulation. A successive policy of a multi-dimensional rapprochement with the West. The simultaneous support of mutually beneficial relations with Russia based on clear economic grounds. Purposeful activity in order to form a domestic consensus. Moderate economic growth with good perspectives for its acceleration. Scenario E 5 - "The European Choice" Similar to scenario E 4 , but based on democratic grounds. The formation of an internal consensus and consolidation of society around generally accepted interests and priorities such as "survival", "prosperity", "social justice", "development". Sustainable economic growth. Entry into European economic and security structures as an associate member, with full membership in the future. Transition to a European mode of development. The probability of the realization of the developed scenarios has been evaluated with the help of the standard "Delphi technique" (see table 2) . According to table 2, the most probable are the scenario C 2 "Marking Time" (the probability of its realization is 22%), the scenarios of Group D - "Eurasian model 1" and "Eurasian model 2" (the combined probability of their realization is 35%) and the scenarios of Group E - "Western Authoritarianism" and "The European Choice" (the probability of their realization is 26%). The above mentioned scenarios are not alternatives in the strict understanding of this word. "Mixed" versions are possible as well as transformations of one scenario into another. Thus under certain conditions scenario A 1 can be transformed into scenarios B 3 and C 2 . Scenario D can logically develop into scenario E (E 4 ; E 5 ). Moreover, according to numerous experts in Ukraine as well as abroad, a "reasonable dose" of authoritarianism could prove not only useful but even desirable at the first stages of radical reforms. The probability of the realization of the developed scenarios is not constant. Data listed in the table corresponds to the state of affairs as of November, 1998. Thus, directed efforts of legislative and executive branches of power can significantly influence the probability of the realization of these scenarios (including the scenarios of group E). Table 2. Results of Expert Evaluations of the Probability of the Realization of Scenarios (The Delphi Technique) Scenario Probability of Realization in Percentage Variation in Estimation of Percentage Scenario A 1 - Free Fall 5 4 - 7 Scenario B 3 - Belarus' Option 12 10 - 15 Scenario C 2 - Marking Time 22 22 - 25 Scenario D 3 - Eurasian Model 1 20 20 Scenario D 4 - Eurasian Model 2 15 10 - 20 Scenario E 4 - Western Authoritarianism 16 14 - 17 Scenario E 5 - European Choice 10 8 - 12 « previous page | content | next page » top Web ukrainetrek.com CONTENTS Annotation Foreword Preface Main Conclusions and Recommendations Strategic Priorities of Ukrainian National Security and Foreign Policy for the Future (O.Honcharenko, B.Parakhonsky) I. Theoretical Backgrounds (O.Honcharenko, O.Strekal) II. Ukraine in Core Geopolitical Outlines 1. Geopolitical Priorities of the Main World Powers and Ukraine (O.Honcharenko, B.Parakhonsky) 2. The USA and the North Atlantic Community - Ukraine - the Russian Federation (B.Parakhonsky) 3. Europe - the USA - the Islamic World - Ukraine - the Russian Federation (B.Parakhonsky) 4. The Asian-Pacific Region - the USA - the Russian Federation - Ukraine (A.Honcharuk, S.Nikishenko, B.Parakhonsky) III. Regional Directions and Peculiarities of Ukraine's Geopolitical Strategy 1. The North-East Axis a) The Russian Federation (R.Zhanhozha, V.Kuzmenko) b) The Present State and Future of the CIS (B.Parakhonsky, O.Honcharenko) 2. The Euro-Atlantic Axis a) The Countries of Western Europe and the Problems of Ukraine's European Integration (O.Strekal) b) The USA and Canada (E.Lysytsyn, O.Honcharenko) c) Euro-Atlantic Structures (O.Manachynsky, A.Soboliev, O.Honcharenko) 3. Central Europe and the Baltic States (O.Strekal, O.Honcharenko) 4. The Black Sea Region a) Ukraine in the Black Sea Region (B.Parakhonsky) b) The Balkan Axis (B.Parakhonsky, V.Kuznetsov, O.Manachynsky) c) The Caucasian Region. The Formation of the GUAM System (B.Parakhonsky, V.Malarov) d) Ukraine and Turkey (B.Parakhonsky) 5. The South-East Axis a) The Middle East (B.Parakhonsky) b) Central and South Asia (B.Parakhonsky) 6. The Asian-Pacific Region (S.Nikishenko, A.Honcharuk) 7. Other Important Regions and Countries (O.Honcharenko, B.Parakhonsky) IV. Alternative Scenarios for the Future of Ukraine (O.Honcharenko) Appendix. A Sociological Study of Ukraine's Foreign Policy and Geopolitical Orientations and its National Security Policy (O.Potiekhin, O.Parakhonska) The National Institute for Strategic Studies The National Institute for Ukrainian-Russian Relations Abbreviations All Rights Reserved © 2006. TrekThemAll holding, Inc. This site is not affiliated with any government entity associated with a name similar to the site domain name. Visit: Kazakhstan facts: map, flag, history, oil, food, people and more! AboutKazakhstan.com